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Three-scenario planner

Draft best-case, most-likely, and worst-case scenarios for a strategic question with early signals and pre-decided responses.

How it works

Scenario planning is not prediction — it's about staying ready. Three-scenario framing gives leaders language to talk about the future without pretending to know it. Structure the input: - The strategic question in one sentence. - What you know about the operating environment. - Your current assumptions (which you're asking the model to stress-test). After you have the scenarios: - Highlight the 3 no-regret moves — these should get funded now. - Assign each early signal to a real person or dashboard to watch for it. - Revisit quarterly and update.

Example prompt

For our YMCA association, draft three 12-month scenarios for {STRATEGIC QUESTION}: (1) most-likely, (2) upside, (3) downside. For each, describe: assumptions, what participation and income look like, what our team needs to do differently, and 3 early signals that this scenario is materialising. Then propose 3 no-regret moves we should make now regardless of which scenario plays out. Be specific about the downside — don't soften it.